Weather Permitting…

mapAs happens frequently, the Weather Network was completely wrong about predicting the weather even 6 hours in advance last night.  I find it hilarious that they have a 2 week outlook when they can’t even do 2 days.  Actually, to give them credit, I tend to have a medium degree (get it?) of confidence in their 2 day predictions, but anything past that is flipping a coin.

Of course, it’s not their fault.  Weather is a hugely complicated phenomenon with trillions of influences affecting what conditions will be at any given place at any given time.  The more things that are in play, the less predictable something is.  So the rising of the sun tomorrow, with only one influence acting on it (gravity) is as close to 100% predictable as you can get.  The path of a billiard ball has only 3 or four influences, so it is highly predictable.  The airspeed velocity* of an unladen African Swallow has many dozens of influences, so it’s somewhat  predictable.

The point of all this is that the market in general, and whom you market to in particular, have millions of influences.  So it’s very unpredictable.  Sometimes it’s possible to grasp why things happened in hindsight, but it’s impossible to predict the future almost all the time.

So, given this unpredictability, there are two strategies to succeed: you can design your company and yourself to be as agile and reactive as possible to what the future brings; or you can try to create  your own future.  I’m not sure which is better, or which is easier, but the latter is definitely scarier.

* I know “airspeed velocity” is redundant, but one must not misquote Monty Python.

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